AGP Executive Report

Government shake-up and protests: Ukraine confirmed Serhii Koretskyi as prime minister as rare wartime street protests continued after President Zelenskyy dismissed defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, deepening tensions inside the military leadership. Long-range strikes: Zelenskyy said the SBU destroyed a Russian Tu-95 at Engels (about 800 km away) and that Ukraine hit Russian oil facilities and targets in occupied territory. Black Sea pressure on “shadow fleet”: Ukraine reported drone attacks disabling 159 vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet since July 6, including 12 more overnight, as Crimea also faced explosions amid the campaign. Russian strikes on civilians and ports: Overnight attacks killed at least four and wounded 20; in Mykolaiv, a Shahed-238 strike damaged foreign-flagged vessels and killed two Ukrainian crew members. Energy crisis in Crimea: Ukraine’s “Molochka” operation said it has disrupted fuel delivery routes to the peninsula, worsening the occupation authorities’ energy situation. EU drone push: The European Commission launched the EU-Ukraine Drone Alliance to scale drone and counter-drone cooperation. International support: The UK pledged €300m with Sweden to help deliver 16 Gripen fighter jets. Accountability and rights: Ukraine marked MH17’s 12th anniversary, reiterating calls for Russia and perpetrators to be held responsible.

Wartime politics: Ukraine’s parliament confirmed energy executive Sergii Koretskyi as prime minister in a major Zelensky reshuffle, as thousands protested the dismissal of tech-savvy defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, with rallies in Kyiv and other cities and NATO’s Rutte warning the change won’t alter strategy. Winter readiness: Zelensky and Koretskyi framed the new government’s top job as preparing for a fifth war winter after repeated strikes on heating and power. Defence industry push: NATO’s deputy commander said Ukraine will produce millions of drones in 2026, while the EU and Ukraine sealed a drone deal to scale joint production and expand into anti-ballistic missiles. Accountability and law: Ukraine moved to implement universal jurisdiction for core international crimes, aiming to tackle impunity. War impact: Russia and Ukraine strikes killed at least 13 civilians in multiple regions, while Ukraine said it disabled 11 “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Humanitarian: Ukraine repatriated the remains of 501 claimed fallen soldiers.

Government Shake-Up & Protests: Ukraine’s parliament approved energy executive Serhii Koretskyi as prime minister (289 votes) after Yulia Svyrydenko resigned, as Zelenskyy dismissed defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov and sparked mass rallies in Kyiv and other cities demanding “bring Fedorov back.” Defense & War Politics: Fedorov accused commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi of trying to “split the country,” while Zelenskyy’s reshuffle keeps key posts in flux. Battlefield Pressure: Russia hit Ukraine with missile and drone strikes overnight, killing 13 and wounding about 50, while Ukraine struck Russian maritime targets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, hitting tankers, tugboats, an oil depot, and bridges. Humanitarian Exchange: Russia returned the bodies of 501 deceased to Ukraine; investigators will identify the remains with Red Cross support. Diplomacy & Talks: Ukraine says a Zelenskyy–Putin meeting could be held in Türkiye, with Ankara again positioned as a mediator. EU/UK Support: The EU and Ukraine signed a drone production defense partnership, and UK PM Keir Starmer pledged “cast-iron” support, announcing €300m for 16 aircraft.

EU-Ukraine Drone Deal: Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a new EU-Ukraine Defense Industrial Partnership to scale joint drone and counter-drone production, with €1bn earmarked for drones under the EU’s €90bn Ukraine Support Loan and plans to expand into anti-ballistic missile production by 2028. Government Shake-Up: Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov as part of a cabinet reshuffle after parliament approved PM Yulia Svyrydenko’s resignation; Zelensky also nominated Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi as the next prime minister. Black Sea Pressure: Ukraine’s drone forces said they hit 136 “shadow fleet” vessels in 10 days, including 20 in the Black Sea, while Russia struck Odesa, killing three and damaging port and civilian infrastructure. Nuclear Plant Row: Russia accused Ukraine of killing the chief engineer at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in a drone attack; the IAEA condemned the incident as unacceptable. Air War in Kyiv: Ballistic missiles struck Kyiv early July 16, triggering fires before an all-clear; officials reported debris hitting non-residential buildings. Rescue Support: Germany delivered hydraulic rescue equipment to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service to speed extraction after strikes. Poland Diplomacy: Polish PM Donald Tusk said a ceasefire looks unlikely soon. Religion & Identity: The Orthodox Church of Ukraine voted to switch to the Western calendar, distancing itself from Russian tradition.

EU-Ukraine Drone Push: Ursula von der Leyen visited Kyiv on Statehood Day and signed an EU-Ukraine “drone deal” to scale joint production, pairing Ukraine’s battlefield know-how with Europe’s industrial capacity. Defense Industry Funding: The EU also backed Ukrainian defense firms with €300 million in grant support and new pathways for research and production expansion. Air Defense & Missiles: Ukraine said it is producing 10 million drones a year and aims to double output to 20 million, while Zelenskyy said Ukraine is nearing Patriot missile production with U.S. licensing moving forward. Black Sea Pressure: Ukraine warned it will protect ports to keep grain exports at last season’s level as Russian strikes continue; meanwhile, Kyiv claims drone attacks hit Russian-linked vessels in the Black Sea after Sea of Azov operations. Human Impact: Russian attacks killed and injured civilians across Odesa and Sumy, and child casualties in June were reported as the highest since April 2022. Refugee Rules: The EU extended temporary protection for Ukrainians through March 2028, with new applicants required to show they meet military-obligation conditions. Politics in Kyiv: Reports say Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s position is under pressure amid a government reshuffle.

Air Defense & French Deal: France will transfer two more SAMP/T systems later this year and speed Aster 30 deliveries, while Ukraine gets licenses to make SCALP missiles, AASM bombs, and Aster 30 interceptors; Zelensky says Ukraine will be first to receive upgraded SAMP/T NG and pilot training for Rafale jets starts in France this year. Government Reshuffle: Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has resigned as Zelensky orders a cabinet reshuffle, with a new head of government not yet named. Drone War & Moscow Pressure: Ukraine says it hit Russian oil and naval targets, while Moscow reported 340 Ukrainian drones around the capital in 24 hours, with most downed. Sea of Azov Logistics: Ukraine’s drone forces struck 11 more Russian vessels overnight, bringing the nine-day total to 116; Russia calls it terrorism as shipping and grain routes face disruption. War Crimes Claims: Kyiv alleges Russia has executed hundreds of Ukrainian PoWs since 2022, with investigations and UN reporting cited. Frontline Update: In Russia-claimed Donetsk, 18 attacks hit residential areas, killing one civilian and injuring six. Legal Transparency: Romania’s court ordered the government to declassify key information on military aid to Ukraine.

Sea of Azov Pressure: Ukraine says drones hit 11 Russian vessels overnight, bringing 116 struck in nine days, while Russia vows to reroute grain shipments. Long-Range Strikes: Kyiv’s forces report deep drone attacks on Russian fuel and petrochemical targets, including Gazprom’s Salavat complex in Bashkortostan, as Zelenskyy credits “long-range sanctions” against war-linked industry. Air Defense Under Strain: Ukraine intercepted five ballistic missiles in a fresh overnight barrage on Kyiv, but other missiles and drones reportedly hit warehouses and a school. European Security Push: At Paris’ Bastille Day, Zelenskyy and partners showcased the “Coalition of the Willing,” while leaders advanced a new anti-ballistic missile shield effort and France confirmed 16 Rafale jets for delivery starting 2028. EU Accession Momentum: “Super Tuesday” opened new EU negotiation clusters for Ukraine and Moldova. Politics at Home: The Rada extended martial law and mobilization for 90 days and dismissed Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. Bulgaria Breaks Ranks: Bulgaria’s PM says Sofia has “no place” in the coalition backing military aid, favoring diplomacy. Naval Retribution: Ukraine’s Navy says it destroyed the FSB border patrol ship Izumrud near Novorossiysk.

Air Defense Push in Paris: Zelensky urged allies to deliver a winter “package” of 300 Patriot missiles (100 per month) as Russia keeps up ballistic strikes, while France and partners unveiled a purely defensive anti-ballistic missile coalition to speed up Europe-wide protection and back Ukraine’s Freyja interceptor effort. Industrial Licenses: Macron said France will grant Ukraine licenses to build Aster-30 and SCALP missiles, and announced next-gen air-defense batteries plus plans for 16 Rafale jets (first flights 2028–2029). Coalition of the Willing: Leaders in Paris reaffirmed support and called for a ceasefire and renewed talks, while also discussing future security guarantees. Kyiv Under Fire: Russian missiles hit Kyiv early Tuesday, sparking fires; officials reported no casualties. Sea of Azov Pressure: Ukraine said it struck 105 vessels tied to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and that Russia suspended key shipping, tightening pressure on Crimea-linked logistics. Ukraine Politics: Parliament received PM Yuliia Svyrydenko’s resignation letter as Zelensky reshuffles government. Security Incident: Russia’s FSB said it stopped 13 AI-equipped drone attacks aimed at the Rostov-Centralny airfield.

Paris Air-Defense Push: President Zelenskyy arrived in Paris to brief partners on an Anti-Ballistic Programme and press for faster, deeper air-defense help as Russia keeps hitting cities and infrastructure. Government Shake-Up: Zelenskyy dismissed Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and announced a broader wartime cabinet reshuffle, with her slated for a new role tied to relations with a key partner. Drone Deal for Ukraine: Germany reportedly signed to fund 50,000 FPV attack drones from Skyfall, with autonomy software from Auterion, aiming to keep striking moving targets even under jamming. Deep-Strike Escalation: Russia’s FSB says it stopped 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones meant for the Rostov-Centralny airfield, after a recruited citizen alerted authorities. Frontline and Accountability: Zelenskyy confirmed the detention of 10 people, including the former commander of the 155th Brigade, in the Kalynivka kidnapping and murder case. War’s Human Cost: Doctors Without Borders condemned Russia’s “deliberate” attacks on Ukraine’s healthcare system, citing a long pattern of strikes on medical facilities and staff. Ports Under Pressure: Ukraine says Russian attacks forced grain exporter Kernel to suspend operations at Chornomorsk terminals, threatening supplies and shipping safety. Diplomatic Friction: The Kremlin dismissed the Paris “Coalition of the Willing” as a “warmonger” bloc while warning it will watch closely.

Government Reset: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a cabinet reshuffle after removing Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, triggering her resignation after just a year; Zelenskyy says Ukraine is changing political strategy and that law-enforcement leadership will also be updated, with Svyrydenko widely expected to move to a key foreign post. Air Defense & Diplomacy: As Russia keeps up missile and drone pressure, allies are set to coordinate in Paris under the “Coalition of the Willing,” with a focus on boosting Ukraine’s air shield and licensed Patriot-related production; EU foreign ministers also meet in Brussels to discuss sanctions and support. Deep-Strike Escalation: Russia’s FSB says it stopped 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones aimed at the Rostov-Centralny airfield, with each carrying an explosive payload; Ukraine meanwhile continues hitting Russian fuel logistics, including strikes on “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine–US Tech Push: The Pentagon has received 2,000 Ukrainian F10 attack drones after Ukraine secured its first export permit for fully assembled combat drones. Energy Pressure: The IEA cut its forecast for Russian oil output, citing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure. International Watch: A New York Times report says Russia has used Japan as a hub for procuring high-tech goods for the war, raising pressure for tighter Japanese export controls.

Ukrainian Politics Reshuffle: President Zelensky proposed replacing PM Yulia Svyrydenko as part of a broader government and security-agency reshuffle, with Svyrydenko set to step down pending parliament approval. Energy Protection: Zelensky met energy officials to push faster resilience steps for Ukraine’s energy sector after repeated Russian strikes. Deep-Strike & Drone War: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said they hit 90 Russian “shadow fleet” vessels in a week in the Sea of Azov, while drones struck Russia’s Syzran oil refinery in Samara, killing at least one and injuring others. FSB Foils AI Drone Plot: Russia’s FSB said it stopped 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones targeting the Rostov-Centralny airfield, after a recruited courier reported the plan. International Support & Patriot Debate: Trump backed Patriot interceptor production in Ukraine and endorsed deeper strikes into Russia, while Germany reportedly funded 50,000 attack drones for Kyiv. Diplomacy & Coalition: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan will attend a Paris summit of the Coalition of the Willing to coordinate future Ukraine aid. War Crimes Accountability: Ukraine identified two more alleged Russian torturers of POWs in Vladimir region, including a doctor nicknamed “Konoval.” Poland Tensions: A new row with Poland over WWII memory and UPA honors continues to strain an otherwise close wartime alliance.

Patriot shift & faster air-defense push: Trump backed Ukraine’s Patriot interceptor production under a U.S. license and endorsed deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russia, while Zelenskyy urged allies to implement weapons deals “much more quickly,” as Russian missile-and-drone barrages keep stressing Kyiv’s air defenses. Russian strikes on civilians: Overnight and weekend attacks killed at least 6–8 people and wounded dozens, including in Kyiv (ballistic missiles and drones), Sumy (glide bombs hitting a bus stop area), and Odesa; Zelenskyy said most targets were shot down but ballistic missiles got through. Accountability after arms-depot blast: Zelenskyy said officials who authorized an ammunition warehouse near homes in Vyshneve were identified and will be held responsible after explosions killed 10. Sea of Azov pressure: Ukraine reported drone strikes hitting 21 Russian tankers and support vessels tied to the “shadow fleet,” while Russia halted shipping through the Don-Azov channel and limited Kerch Strait transit, adding pressure to Crimea’s fuel supply. Poland ties & Volyn remembrance: Zelenskyy and Polish officials marked the Volyn tragedy, with both sides stressing a shared threat from Russia; Poland also signaled MiG-29 upgrade help with conditions. Diplomacy & limits in NATO: Bulgaria and the Netherlands said they’ve hit limits on direct arms stockpile deliveries, even as Ukraine presses for more air-defense systems.

Air Defense Strain in Kyiv: Russia hit the capital with ballistic missiles and drones, injuring at least 10–12 people (including a child) and damaging civilian infrastructure as Ukraine struggles with a Patriot interceptor shortage. Deep-Strike and Patriot Shift: At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump backed Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia and approved a U.S. license for Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptors—big news, but likely years before it changes the battlefield. Crimea Isolation Escalates: Ukraine’s drone campaign keeps squeezing Crimea via power cuts and logistics disruption, while Kyiv says it struck 21 Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov and Russia later suspended shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don–Azov canal. Mobilization Backlash: Conscription riots in Lviv show growing public resistance to “busification” recruitment. Politics, Limits, and Aid: NATO allies signal constraints—Bulgaria and the Netherlands say they’ve hit stockpile or assistance limits—while Poland’s defense chief visited Volyn to honor WWII victims. Local Life: Kyiv raised public transport fares to 30 hryvnias per trip from July 15, with a new transfer ticket option.

Kyiv Mobility: Starting July 15, Kyiv public transport fares rise to UAH 30 per trip, with discounts for multi-trip card recharges and an added transfer ticket from Aug. 1. World Bank Support: Ukraine received $3.35B in budget support from the World Bank’s Jobs and Private Sector Growth program, tied to reforms in procurement, energy market integration, agriculture, veterans’ businesses, housing, and education. Long-Range Strikes & Fuel Pressure: Zelensky says Ukraine’s “long-range impact” command will focus resources on cutting Russia’s war capacity as drone attacks keep hitting oil and logistics; Russia has now admitted gasoline shortages linked to refinery disruptions. Sea of Azov Campaign: Ukraine struck eight “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, aiming to choke fuel deliveries to Crimea, while Russia claims drone interceptions and refinery fires. Patriot Reality Check: Trump’s promise to license Patriot interceptor production is hailed in Kyiv, but experts warn it won’t help soon and could take years due to missile tech and supply-chain constraints. Diplomacy & Nuclear Risk: China again urged de-escalation and told Russia not to use nuclear weapons, as Lavrov said Moscow no longer trusts Western calls for negotiations. EU Accession Talks: EU ambassadors approved opening the sixth accession negotiation cluster, with the formal decision expected July 14. Energy Aid: Sweden and Denmark added €124.1M and €10.66M respectively to Ukraine’s Energy Support Fund. Monaco Bomb Probe: Ukraine’s prosecutor says there’s no evidence linking Ukraine to Nord Stream blasts, while the Monaco bombing case continues after the main suspect was found dead in Kyiv and arrests followed.

Conscription Crisis in Lviv: Crowds attacked Territorial Recruitment officers, overturning and burning a vehicle after a street detention sparked a violent backlash, with authorities opening criminal probes—another sign Ukraine’s “busification” system is breaking down. Patriot and Homegrown Air Defense: Zelensky says Ukraine has started building the Freya anti-ballistic system as an easier-to-produce Patriot analogue, while NATO partners push “Coalition of the Willing” planning in Paris and Poland defends Patriot transfers as vital for NATO security. Deep Strikes and Fuel War: Ukraine says it hit 697 targets inside Russia in six months, with long-range pressure on refineries and logistics driving major economic losses; Russia counters by expanding a “buffer zone” claim. Crimea Under Pressure: Drone strikes hit a key electricity substation in occupied Crimea, triggering outages, as Kyiv intensifies disruption of power and supply lines. Ukraine’s Cash Update: The central bank plans a new 2,000-hryvnia note featuring Vasyl Stus from Sept. 4 to keep cash access resilient amid war disruptions. Monaco Bomb Case Twist: A Kyiv court remanded two men accused in the killing of a woman linked to the Monaco bombing; one HUR officer reportedly retracted a confession, blaming the other. Energy Infrastructure Accusations: Kremlin officials again accuse Ukraine of attacks on gas infrastructure and tankers tied to exports. Netherlands Aid Limit: Bloomberg reports the Netherlands says it has reached its limit for direct military help to Ukraine.

Patriot push and air-defense reality check: Zelensky says Ukraine still needs technical details agreed with the US before Patriot interceptor production can start, while experts warn it could take about two years (and possibly longer) to get missiles rolling. NATO summit follow-through: NATO leaders pledged €70bn for Ukraine in 2026 and reaffirmed deterrence, but the licensing news is paired with reminders that production bottlenecks won’t fix Kyiv’s needs overnight. Deep strikes and fuel pressure: Ukraine hit Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, aiming to choke Crimea’s fuel supply, as drone attacks also disrupt refineries and Moscow responds with diesel export bans. Civilian toll and UN alarm: UN officials told the Security Council that Russian strikes show a clear pattern of targeting civilians, amid fresh waves of attacks on Kyiv and other cities. Domestic flashpoint in Lviv: A conscription “busification” incident sparked a crowd riot that overturned a draft vehicle, prompting a criminal investigation and highlighting a recruitment system under strain. Diplomacy and messaging: Pakistan urged an immediate halt to hostilities at the UN; Russia dismissed US claims that escalation could speed peace. Regional and global angles: Moldova moved to join an international mechanism to compensate Ukraine for Russian damage; JICA launched a Ukraine-Japan tech co-creation program focused on civilian innovation.